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Quantifying Counterfactual Military History (ASA-CRC Series on Statistical Reasoning in Science and Society)

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Quantifying Counterfactual Military History (ASA-CRC Series on Statistical Reasoning in Science and Society)

4.85 40,415 ratings · 7,977 reviews
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Overview: Forces shaping human history are complex, but the course of history is undeniably changed on many occasions by conscious acts. These may be premeditated or responsive, calmly calculated or performed under great pressure. They may also be considered to be successful or catastrophic, but how are historians to make such judgments and appeal to evidence in support of their conclusions? Further, and crucially, how exactly are we to distinguish probable unrealized alternatives from improbable ones? This book describes some of the modern statistical techniques that can begin to answer this question, as well as some of the difficulties in doing so. Using simple, well-quantified cases drawn from military history, we claim that statistics can now help us to navigate the near-truths, the envelope around the events with which any meaningful historical analysis must deal, and to quantify the basis of such analysis. Quantifying Counterfactual Military History is intended for a general audience who are interested in learning more about statistical methods both in military history and for wider applications. Key Features:Demonstrates how modern statistical techniques can measure the impact of counterfactual decisions.Examines the importance of counterfactual reasoning for both modern scholars and historical actors.Combines historical narrative, mathematical precision and data to create a straightforward presentation of both factual and counterfactual military history.Provides an original contribution to the debate over the validity and rigour of works of counterfactual historyWritten in a manner accessible to readers who have no formal training in History or Statistics.

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Brennen Fagan
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After spending years working in the corporate world, Brennen Fagan finally decided to pursue a lifelong passion for writing. They currently reside in a quiet suburb where they spend most of their time outlining new stories, reading extensively, and occasionally attempting to bake.

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Robert Hall
Robert Hall June 11, 2024
A profoundly satisfying read. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
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Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. A true literary gem.
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Exceeded all my expectations. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
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Masterpiece from start to finish. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. Worth every moment spent reading.
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Masterpiece from start to finish. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
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I thoroughly enjoyed the elegance of it. The middle had a deliberate pace, but the climax was phenomenal. Quite impressive overall.
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Kenneth Brown
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A highly sophisticated read. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
Ryan Torres
Ryan Torres March 07, 2025
Such a rich narrative. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
Matthew King
Matthew King October 30, 2024
Masterpiece from start to finish. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. Worth every moment spent reading.
Mary Garcia
Mary Garcia August 27, 2024
Took a moment to build, but the payoff was spectacular. The middle had a deliberate pace, but the climax was phenomenal. A solid 4 stars from me.
Eric Scott
Eric Scott December 19, 2025
Absolutely brilliant. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. An effortless 5 stars.
Lisa Baker
Lisa Baker April 15, 2024
Absolutely brilliant. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
Ryan Carter
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A profoundly satisfying read. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
Karen Cruz
Karen Cruz May 30, 2024
A profoundly satisfying read. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. An effortless 5 stars.
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Stephanie Diaz January 30, 2024
Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
Nicholas Reyes
Nicholas Reyes August 30, 2024
Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. A true literary gem.
Amanda Lewis
Amanda Lewis October 12, 2024
I was completely blown away. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. A true literary gem.
Ashley White
Ashley White November 25, 2025
It was adequate. It verged on repetitive in the second act. A more concise edit would have served it well. Perhaps more aligned with a different audience's tastes.
Cynthia Scott
Cynthia Scott April 01, 2025
I thoroughly enjoyed the elegance of it. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. A very distinguished novel.
George Rodriguez
George Rodriguez March 03, 2024
Such a rich narrative. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
Joseph Lee
Joseph Lee October 08, 2025
I thoroughly enjoyed the elegance of it. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. I would highly recommend this to discerning readers.
Karen Baker
Karen Baker September 23, 2025
Absolutely brilliant. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. A true literary gem.
Barbara Lewis
Barbara Lewis April 23, 2024
A highly sophisticated read. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. A very distinguished novel.
Anthony White
Anthony White August 15, 2025
Took a moment to build, but the payoff was spectacular. The protagonist was compelling, though some subplots felt slightly overshadowed. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
Laura Gonzalez
Laura Gonzalez July 30, 2025
Not entirely to my refined tastes. The tempo was somewhat languid, and I found my mind wandering. Not poor, simply average. Unlikely to reread, but a reasonable expenditure of time.
Nancy Edwards
Nancy Edwards August 03, 2024
A highly sophisticated read. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
Michelle Flores
Michelle Flores March 25, 2024
I was completely blown away. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
Jessica Brown
Jessica Brown October 18, 2024
I was completely blown away. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. Worth every moment spent reading.
Donald  Davis
Donald Davis December 01, 2024
I was completely blown away. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. An effortless 5 stars.
Jennifer Phillips
Jennifer Phillips October 23, 2025
I was completely blown away. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
Steven Martinez
Steven Martinez September 25, 2025
A profoundly satisfying read. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. Worth every moment spent reading.
John Mitchell
John Mitchell August 30, 2024
Absolutely brilliant. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
Karen Perez
Karen Perez May 01, 2025
Took a moment to build, but the payoff was spectacular. The protagonist was compelling, though some subplots felt slightly overshadowed. I would highly recommend this to discerning readers.
Robert Taylor
Robert Taylor August 19, 2024
Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. A true literary gem.
William Thompson
William Thompson June 17, 2025
Took a moment to build, but the payoff was spectacular. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. A very distinguished novel.
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Mark Flores January 23, 2025
Took a moment to build, but the payoff was spectacular. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. I would highly recommend this to discerning readers.
Donald  Davis
Donald Davis January 25, 2024
Absolutely brilliant. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. A true literary gem.
David Martinez
David Martinez August 07, 2024
Excellent, though slightly flawed. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. A solid 4 stars from me.
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